Fantasy preview - NFC North

Detroit Lions - The Lions are in a similar situation as Cleveland is in, that is, trying to build a contender in a loaded division. It won't be easy. On the other hand, there's nowhere to go but up after going 2-30 the past 2 years. There are some pieces in place. It was a mixed bag last year for #1 pick Matthew Stafford. He looked decent in a few games to make me think he might be the real deal. Then again, he might be the 2nd coming of Jay Cutler, throwing a bunch of picks. Had he played the whole season last year (he missed the final 4 games due to injury), he would have been close to 3000 yards and 16-18 TDs maybe. He'll go through some growing pains, he probably shouldn't be drafted, but the Lions have done a decent job in surrounding him with weapons to take the pressure off. After having a big 2008, Calvin Johnson was a major disappointment last year, with 67 catches for 984 yards and only 5 TDs. He did miss 2 games and was hampered by injuries in those he didn't, and was breaking in a rookie at QB, so I won't say he has regressed. It may be a couple years before he gets back to his 2008 level. What to expect this year? I think he'll be better than 2009. I'll say ~80 catches, 1100 yards, and 7-8 TDs. On the other side will be newly acquired Nate Burleson, who played under Lions' OC Scott Linehan in Minnesota, so he shouldn't need any adjustment time. Burleson had a decent year in a bad situation in Seattle, going for 63/812/3 despite missing 3 games. It's probably going to look the same this year. He'll be a decent backup/spot starter, assuming you can peg his big games. At TE there will probably be a mixture of Brandon Pettigrew and Tony Scheffler, neither of whom should be owned unless you're desperate at TE. RB also looked like it might be a time-share, with incumbent Kevin Smith coming off an ACL tear and rookie Jahvid Best. Even before his injury, Smith was a disappointment last year, averaging just 3.4 yards per carry. It's unsure whether he will be ready to start the season or not. Best is slight at 5'10" and under 200 pounds, so even if he shows something he likely won't get the bulk of the carries. There are some concussion concerns with him as well. Either of these shouldn't be any better than your 3rd string RB. My main concern on offense is the line, the running game was terrible last year and Stafford was getting killed back there every week. Sadly, they've done nothing to remedy it. The Lions have weapons, but I'm afraid they'll only go as far as that line takes them. On defense, it's apparent that Jim Schwartz is molding it after the defenses he had in Tennessee. DE Kyle Vanden Bosch followed his old DC to Detroit, and despite having a couple disappointing years, he brings leadership and experience to a defense that badly needs it. They used their first round draft pick on Ndamukong Suh as well as bringing in former Packer and Brown Corey Williams. Schwartz's defenses usually have pretty solid defensive lines, and he has the Lions following the same philosophy. They lose Ernie Sims who really wasn't a great fit in the scheme, but add a couple pieces to the secondary. There is potential with this defense, but playing 6 games against the Vikings, Packers, and Bears will be a tough task. At best a platoon defense.

UPDATE: It looks like Kevin Smith will be ready to for the regular season. He may be worth a late round pick.

Minnesota Vikings - Favre's coming back. End of discussion. Let's move on. He won't repeat what he did last year, no way, but with the weapons Minny has on offense he might come close. I'm thinking 3800-4000 yards, ~30 TDs, but I do think his INTs will be up, probably in the mid-teens. The biggest benefactor from Favre joining the team was Sidney Rice, who erupted for 83 catches, 1300 yards and 8 TDs. I'm not sure if he'll match the yardage total, but I would expect similar numbers this year. Joining him in the WR corps will be Bernard Berrian and offensive rookie of the year Percy Harvin. Berrian I've always thought of being the same type of receiver as Nate Burleson: deep threats, who at times can really help a fantasy team, but other times can kill it. He's never had more than 71 catches, and has never passed the 1000 yard mark in a season. These are not the hallmarks of fantasy success. He might be the starter as the season opens, but he'll have Harvin breathing down his neck. Harvin is more of a slot receiver, but even so, he'll likely get more touches than Berrian because he can line up anywhere on the field, and what he can do after the catch. Harvin's more suited for a #3 fantasy WR, but he could be a low-end #2 if you're in dire need. Count me in as one of the people who was scratching their head when the Vikings signed Visanthe Shiancoe 3 years ago. Count me in as being wrong about him as well. He's caught 18 touchdowns the last 2 years, including 11 last year. And if there's one thing Brett Favre does in the red zone, it's look for his tight end. He won't get a lot of catches or yards, probably around 50/500, but those tasty touchdowns are where he earns his keep. I can't see him getting double digit TDs this year, but somewhere around 8 sounds doable. The offensive line stays pretty static, which isn't necessarily a good thing, as they aren't getting any better and aren't getting any younger. They're part of the reason the Adrian Peterson's yards per carry has dropped each of his 3 years in the league. The other part of the blame however lies on AP himself. Too often he looks for the big play instead of taking what the defense gives him. But there will be big plays. There'll be a lot of rushes for 2 yards, but then boom, he breaks a 60y TD. His fumbling is a major concern, he's had something like 20 in 3 years, but after seeing him fumble twice in the NFC Championship game last year, you can be sure the coaching staff is working on him keeping the ball more secure. Chester Taylor is now gone, but the Vikings made an odd move by drafting Stanford RB Toby Gerhart in the 2rd round. Unlike Taylor, he isn't suited to play 3rd down, so this actually increases AP's value. On defense, the Vikings field virtually the same players they had last year. There'll still be the Williams Wall and sack artist Jared Allen up front. The Vikes were above average on defense last year, but I think they'll be more middle of the road this year. Allen is a superstar who will get his sacks, but I don't see many other playmakers here.

UDPATE: Sidney Rice injured his hip and will need surgery. He's expected to miss 'around' 8 games. It's a pretty serious injury, so while there's a chance he comes back in less than 8 games, there's probably just as equal a chance that he doesn't play at all this year. At this point if he's worth drafting, it'll be in the last 2 or 3 rounds. Percy Harvin has been getting migraine headaches a lot, some so severe that he recently collapsed during practice. This is something to keep in mind when drafting Harvin. With Rice out, it looks like Berrian and Harvin will be the starters. The Vikings recently signed Javon Walker and traded for Greg Camarillo for WR help. Walker or Camarillo probably shouldn't be drafted.

Green Bay Packers - The biggest challengers to Minnesota should be Green Bay, who will relish to have a couple more shots at Favre. Since taking over for Favre, Aaron Rodgers has been fantasy gold, and is going ahead of Drew Brees in some drafts. In his first 2 full years he's averaged 4200 yards, 29 TDs, to only 10 INTs. He's also rushed for 9 TDs. And this was with the offensive line beat up last year. I see no reason to think he won't equal those averages again this year. It's amazing how Green Bay just keeps replacing WRs. First there was Sterling Sharpe, then Robert Brooks, then Antonio Freeman, then Donald Driver, and now the torch has been fully passed to Greg Jennings. Jennings had a slow start last year, but as the season wore on, (and the offensive line improved), he was back to his old self. I think he can reach 85/1200 and possibly double digit scores this year. Driver is still there of course, and like Derrick Mason, he has a wealth of experience and doesn't necessarily need blazing speed to get open. However there's no question he's on the downturn of his career, and while he's gotten at least 70 catches and 1000 yards for 6 straight years, that streak might be in jeopardy, but he'll be close. Keep an eye on #3 WR James Jones, a deep threat whose value could improve greatly if Driver or Jennings misses time. TE Jermichael Finley has solidified himself as an upper echelon tight end after a great second half last year. He's most likely going to be available later in the draft after the truly elite, but he'll be a great value. Say what you want about Ryan Grant. That his running is ugly, that he's not flashy. But he quietly gets the job done, and most importantly, isn't part of one of the many runningback by committees. He's gone for 1200 yards each of the past 2 years, and while he isn't a TD machine, he is very consistent. On defense, the Packers were the #3 fantasy defense last year despite working in a new 3-4 scheme. They produced 4 TDs, and looks like they should be solid again this year. Maybe not a top 5 defense, but definitely top 10.

Chicago Bears - The Bears bring in Mike Martz to run the offense and suddenly they're an offensive juggernaut? I don't buy it. The only new face on offense is Chester Taylor, and while I think having a year under his belt in Chicago will help Jay Cutler, I don't look at Devin Hester, Johnny Knox, Edgar Bennett, and Devin Aromashodu and think "Wow, I could see 3 of these guys being fantasy relevant". Here's my main problem with the new Bears-Martz tandem. Martz likes his QBs to take 7 step drops, with his WRs running longer routes. Which is fine when you can give your QB time, but that isn't the case in Chicago. They had to resuscitate Orlando Pace to play tackle last year, that should show how bad the offensive line issue is. And they did nothing in the offseason to fix it. Now don't get me wrong, I'm not saying this can't work. Hester and Knox are speedsters who can make this offense work, but I can't see it happening on a consistent basis, especially later in the year when Soldier Field's turf is a muddy mess. Expect a lot of ups and downs for the receivers, and expect Cutler to improve his numbers a little bit but for his INTs to stay around the low to mid 20s. You can also expect TE Greg Olsen's numbers to go down. Martz doesn't use TEs as receivers much, so don't expect Olsen to repeat 60/600/8 this year. After gaining 1700 all-purpose yards and 12 total TDs as a rookie, Matt Forte saw his rushing total drop 300 yards and his TD total down to 4. Despite the disappointing season, there is some optimism entering 2010, as Mike Martz likes to use his RBs as receivers, which makes Forte and Taylor great fits in the offense. If the offensive line can get some traction, I see him getting back to his 2008 numbers. Taylor should only be used in spot situations, as you won't be able to count on him producing most weeks. The biggest change on defense is the addition of former Panther Julius Peppers. Peppers was arguably the biggest and best defensive free agent of the summer, but he does tend to disappear for stretches, so don't start thinking suddenly the Bears defense is back. I think they should fare better than last year, especially if their LBs can stay healthy. Should be good enough to start most weeks, but best to avoid bad matchups when they arise.